Estimating the Disease Parameters for Smallpox in London over the period 1708 to 1748
Abstract
When predicting the spread of a disease such as smallpox,knowledge of the transmission parameter, R0, is important.Previous studies have estimated R0 from outbreaks of thedisease, but these estimates are prone to uncertainties because ofthe small population sizes and the short data runs. This studyuses data from smallpox deaths in London over the period 1708 to1748. Although smallpox was endemic in the population at thistime, by using an estimator based upon a second order Gaussianfilter to fit a nonlinear model to the dynamics of the disease,the disease parameters are obtained, leading to an estimate ofR0. The model also reveals the importance of temperature andrainfall on the transmissibility of the disease.
