15th Triennial World Congress of the International Federation of Automatic Control
  Barcelona, 21–26 July 2002 
ARMA MODEL SELECTION USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION AND AIC CRITERIA
Mark S. Vossa and Xin Fengb
a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
voss@rocketmail.com
b Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
fengx@marquette.edu

Marquette University, Milwaukee Wisconsin

This paper presents a new method for determining ARMA model parameters using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). PSO is a new optimization method that is based on a social-psychological metaphor. Each ARMA model is represented as a particle in the particle swarm. Particles in a swarm move in discrete steps based on their current velocity, memory of where they found their personal best fitness value, and a desire to move toward where the best fitness value that was found so far by all of the particles during a previous iteration. PSO is applied for determining the ARMA parameters for the Wolfer Sunspot Data. The method is extended using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). PSO is used to simultaneously optimize and select an estimated “best approximating ARMA model” based on AIC. Several plots are included to illustrate how the method converges for various PSO parameter settings.
Keywords: ARMA Models, ARMA Parameter Estimation, Identification Algorithms, Agents, Genetic Algorithms, Model Approximation. Particle Swarm Optimization
Session slot T-We-M01: Identification of Linear Systems/Area code 3a : Modelling, Identification and Signal Processing