INPUT VARIABLE SELECTION FOR FORECASTING MODELS
Manuel R. Arahal, Alfonso Cepeda, Eduardo F. Camacho
Depto. Ingeniería de Sistemas y Automática. Universidad de Sevilla
The selection of input variables plays a crucial role when modelling time series. For nonlinear models there are not well developed techniques such as AIC and other criteria that work with linear models. In the case of Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) generalization is greatly influenced by such selection. In this paper two approaches are compared using real data from a Spanish utility company. The models used are neural networks although the algorithms can be used with other nonlinear models. The experiments show that that input variable selection affects the performance of forecasting models and thus should be treated as a generalization problem.
Keywords: Autocorrelation, Autoregressive models, Neural networks, Time-series analysis
Session slot T-Fr-A21: Posters of Learning, Stochastic, Fuzzy and Nerural Systems/Area code 3e : Fuzzy and Neural Systems

|