15th Triennial World Congress of the International Federation of Automatic Control
  Barcelona, 21–26 July 2002 
THE STRUCTURAL IDENTIFIABILITY OF A GENERAL EPIDEMIC (SIR) MODEL WITH SEASONAL FORCING
N. D. Evans* M. J. Chapman** M. J. Chappell* K. R. Godfrey*
* School of Engineering, University of Warwick,
COVENTRY, CV4 7AL UK
* School of MIS-Mathematics, Coventry University,
COVENTRY, CV1 5FB UK

In this paper it is shown that a general SIR epidemic model, with the force of infection subject to seasonal variation, and a proportion of the number of infectives measured, is unidentifiable. This means that an uncountable number of different parameter vectors can, theoretically, give rise to the same idealised output data. Any subsequent parameter estimation from real data must be viewed with less confidence as a result. The approach is essentially that developed by Evans et al. (2002), with modifications to allow for time-variation in the effective contact rate. This approach utilises the existence of an infinitely differentiable transformation that connects the state trajectories corresponding to parameter vectors that give rise to identical output data.
Keywords: Structural identifiability, nonlinear systems, SIR models, seasonal variation
Session slot T-Mo-A20: Modelling and Control of Biochemical and Biological Sys/Area code 4c : Modelling and Control of Biomedical Systems