ON NONLINEAR MODELING FOR THE PREDICTABILITY OF EQUITY RETURN
K.P. Lam*
* Department of Systems Engineering & Engineering Management The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong Email: kplam@se.cuhk.edu.hk
Non-stationary time series are commonly found in financial applications. Added to the complexity are the time-varying nature and non-linearity of accurate models for describing the dynamic behavior of these financial time series. We extend the techniques of cointegration to handle time-varying, non-linear relationship between a time series (news) and its casually affected time series. The predictability of daily return, as related to the NASDAQ indexes and to a possible NASDAQ-GEM relationship, is investigated based on a proposed news model for dynamic changes. The effectiveness and robustness of neural network models for handling non-linearity is compared with linear least-squares estimation.
Keywords: Cointegration time series, equity return, news modeling, neural networks
Session slot T-Tu-E07: Modeling and Control of Economic Systems/Area code 5e : Computation in Economic, Financial and Engineering-Economic Systems

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