Multi-scale modelling of bio-energy networks: a complex systems approach
Multi-scale and/or multi-disciplinary approach to process-product innovation
Multiscale Modeling (T3-5)
Keywords: bio-energy, multi-scale modelling, complex systems, social networks, infrastructure
With diminishing fossil fuel resources, biomass derived energy is an attractive option for a transition towards a CO2-neutral energy system. Such a transition would require new energy infrastructures for the large scale production of electricity and biofuels with biomass as feedstock.
The introduction and management of large-scale bio-energy infrastructures present several challenges due to the intrinsic differences between fossil fuels and biomass as energy sources. Biomass cannot be stored without pre-treatment, it has a low energy density and variability in quality is much higher than for fossil fuels. Furthermore, the availability of biomass is seasonal, and the opportunity for small-scale local production of electricity allows for different system operation. These and other differences pose several new questions and challenges for the introduction and management of bio-energy networks. Is it preferable to convert biomass into biofuels or into green electricity? Which technologies are preferable? What are the impacts of pre-treatment of biomass? What are the implications of any of these choices on the sustainability of the bio-energy network? Furthermore, the complexity of this problem is amplified by the multitude and diversity of stakeholders displaying conflicting or competing interests in the infrastructure development.
The questions posed can only be answered from a systems perspective, whereby the dynamics, interaction and co-evolution between technology development, the agent’s behaviour and the social embeddedness of the industrial network are analysed explicitly and simultaneously. Since technology development, agent decisions and institutionalisation take place on different length and time scales, from operational to evolutional, a multi-scale modelling approach is required to model the full complexity of the system. Specifically, a multi-scale modelling approach is developed that entails the following scales:
- operational performance of agents;
- strategic decision making;
- institutionalisation through social embeddedness;
- technology development through learning.
The multi-scale model is implemented as a hybrid model of agent-based modelling and system dynamics, and applied to a case-study of a biomass energy network in South Africa. In the context of the case-study, the following features and dynamics are considered:
- different conversion technologies, such as combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, enzymatic hydrolysis, electricity distribution via transmission lines, biofueled engines for local electricity production in mini-grids, the distribution of biofuels, centralised versus decentralised production of electricity and/or biofuels;
- agent behaviour, such as goal setting, investment decisions, suppliers/customers choice and the development of policy instruments;
- institutional effects, such as imitation and the generation of social norms and routines;
- technological learning curves.
The results of this study provide an opportunity to analyse the sustainability of any possible bio-energy network configuration over time. Subsequently, these results can be used to develop and evaluate government instruments and/or business strategies that promote the most sustainable configuration.
Presented Tuesday 18, 10:05 to 10:25, in session Multiscale Modeling (T3-5).
